Broadway Intelligence Ltd – Global Investigations & Risk Analysis » Catherine Connolly's presidential victory in Ireland: seismic breakthrough for the Left or protest vote?

Catherine Connolly's resounding victory in the presidential election on 24 October is a potentially seismic moment in Irish politics. Running as an independent, Connolly's candidacy was backed by a coalition of Ireland's smaller left-leaning and hard-left parties ranging from the Social Democrats and Labour to Sinn Féin, the Greens, and People Before Profits. It is the first time the broadly defined "Left" has won a majority of votes in a national election. Moreover, her 63% of first round preferences trounced the candidates of the two traditional Irish parties - the centrist Fianna Fáil and the centre-right Fine Gael – which have alternated in power since Ireland's independence from Britain in 1922.

Although the Irish presidency is formally ceremonial and non-executive, the office wields an outsized influence both at home and abroad. Through moral authority, soft power, and the symbolic weight of representing the Republic, previous presidents such as Mary Robinson and the outgoing Michael D. Higgin have shaped Ireland's national identity as a liberal, compassionate country with an outsized voice on the European and indeed the global stage. The President's speeches, foreign visits, and interventions in public debates often carries a greater resonance than those of the Taoiseach [Prime Minister] and Ministers, precisely because the presidency is seen as transcending party politics. The presidency can be said to operate less as a constitutional function than as a moral compass, reflecting, and sometimes redirecting, the nation’s conscience.

A landslide built on discontent

Although turnout in the 24 October presidential election was low [a mere 46 per cent], Connolly's decisive victory is a reflection of the Irish electorate's anxieties about the cost of living and housing crises, generational inequality, the stagnation of the national infrastructure and social tensions related to migration and the changing make-up of Irish society. It also reflected the voters' disillusionment with the two main parties and their ability to provide solutions to these problems in an immediate and tangible sense.

Connolly herself will not have the powers to address them either, but her status as a political independent, a self-declared socialist and pacifist, and a strident advocate for Irish unity means she will be in a position to use the presidency to advocate for positions and policies that will likely be at odds with those of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

What her presidency says about Irish political mood

There are a number of themes emerging from this result:

Defiance of the centre-right consensus. The governing parties are seen as part of the problem, and this election shows how vulnerable they are even in a ‘safe’ role like the presidency. The fact that the left formed a united backing behind Connolly suggests that the centre-right dominance is being challenged in Ireland.
The rise of "independent" as a political brand. Connolly built her identity around being independent of party machines. In a political era where institutional trust is weak, being seen as outside the system matters.
Symbolic demand for change, even if real power is limited. The presidency does not run the government. But the very choice of Connolly by voters is symbolic: Irish voters wants different voices, new emphases, and perhaps a break with some of its established patterns.

In short: Connolly’s victory is less a roadmap for immediate policy change than a signpost of direction. It raises the question: what will the next seven years look like for Ireland — and how will those traditional parties respond?

Foreign and defence policy: new questions on the horizon

Although the Irish presidency is symbolic, the President is Head of State and Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces [in legal terms at least]. The election of a President with strong views on foreign and defence policy raises matters of tone, influence and Ireland's international posture. It also raises the prospect of tensions between the President and the government over Ireland grand strategy in a world rapidly becoming more unstable and more dangerous, especially for small states like Ireland.

Connolly is a vocal and committed supporter of Ireland's traditional policy of military neutrality. But more than being an advocate of keeping Ireland out of any kind of military alliance, she is an outspoken critic of NATO and rejects any idea of Irish participation in the development of a European military capacity. She recently accused Britain and France of complicity in the "genocide" in Gaza, and likened German rearmament in the face of an aggressively revanchist Russia as akin to the Nazi rearmament program of the 1930s.

There is no question that her views on foreign policy are very distinct from the more cautiously integrationist views of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. With a President who emphasises neutrality, the question becomes: will her election strengthen calls from the Left in Irish politics for the country to step back from even its tentative steps towards military cooperation with Europe and NATO?

With Russian bombers regularly penetrating Irish air space [leading to the national embarrassment of the British providing aircraft to intercept them], Russian spy ships ominously hovering over the submarine Internet cables off the west coast of Ireland, and increasing evidence of Russian espionage and influence operations in the country, Connolly's positions will certainly clash with those in the political establishment who believe Ireland can no longer be a free-rider in European security affairs and must make some contribution to continental security.

But the fact that voters appear to be expressing discontent with status-quo parties on bread and butter issues means that foreign and defence policy cannot be insulated from domestic politics. Housing, cost of living, generational inequality: if the President uses her platform to link those issues to increased defence spending, it may shift public expectations of what Ireland's strategic commitments should be beyond its traditional role as a provider of troops to United Nations peacekeeping missions.

What to look out for in a Connolly presidency

Scenario A – A gentle re-balancing: Connolly uses the presidency to emphasise peace, neutrality and social justice, but the government continues with current foreign and defence policies. The President becomes a moral voice but does not force a change in strategic direction.

Scenario B – Increased public pressure on alliances: Her presidency focuses public and media attention [negatively] on issues like defence spending, NATO partnerships, and EU military integration. The government may feel forced to respond, reform or resist. We might expect public debate on Ireland's contribution to EU defence, role in UN missions, and level of arms procurement to become more salient and more acrimonious.

Scenario C – A more radical shift in Ireland’s international stance: Less likely, given the constraints of Irish constitutional structures and international obligations, but possible. The President’s leadership could encourage a left-wing coalition in Dáil Éireann [the Irish parliament] to restate a firm commitment to neutrality, reduce involvement in military initiatives, and steer Ireland toward a more formally "non-aligned" foreign policy stance.

What traditional parties must now reckon with

For Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Connolly's victory and their own abject showing in the presidential election ought to be a wake-up call. Fianna Fáil leader and incumbent Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris now have a lot of thinking to do. They must ask themselves how did they lose the centre of gravity in Irish politics, and how they can reconnect with unhappy, disillusioned, and cynical voters who see the traditional parties as impotent in the face of declining living standards and in some ways complicit in that decline.

Moreover, Connolly's campaign messaging about a movement working to build what she calls a "new Republic" appears to have resonated strongly with the electorate. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will worry that the Left, which has traditionally been both fractured and fractious, could now coalesce into a more formal version of the temporary and uncoordinated coalition that backed Connolly's candidacy. They will worry that Connolly's spectacular victory shows there is an unsatisfied political appetite for radical economic policies to solve the concurrent crises and a foreign policy which is not only "neutral" but also radical in its opposition to NATO, European rearmament, and the global actions of Ireland's allies including the US, Britain, France, and Germany. Nonetheless, it remains a political longshot that such a left-wing coalition will crystalize given deep policy differences and a good deal of personal animosity between their leaders.

Final reflection: Beyond symbolism

The Irish presidency is limited in formal power but the office is far from powerless. Connolly’s election is not just an individual triumph; it is a barometer of the Irish public mood and a potential epochal inflection point in how the Irish expect their country to behave domestically and internationally. As President she may not dictate policy, but Connolly will shape the conversation. Her presidency could become a meaningful turning point, one in which the disillusionment of voters translates into a realignment of domestic politics in a way more profound than anything that has happened since 1922. For observers outside Ireland, this will not just be about Irish domestic politics, it will also be about how a small country with a proud neutral tradition responds to a more dangerous and uncertain world. In the capitals of Europe, diplomats and intelligence analysts will now ponder whether Ireland can navigate a path between its commitment to neutrality with a recognition that it must contribute to the security it enjoys as a member of the European Union.

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Catherine Connolly's presidential victory in Ireland: seismic breakthrough for the Left or protest vote?